Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) supporters shouldn’t put too much stock in the current stand-off between the camp of Dr. Hubert Minnis and the camp of Free National Movement (FNM) Leader Michael Pintard.
Whenever elections are called, the PLP will either stand or fall on its own merits, and not on the apparent division within the FNM.
These people seem to have forgotten about the former Cabinet members within the Christie administration who expressed concerns about the state of the FNM when the Loretta Butler-Turner faction was wreaking havoc within the party.
At the time, the FNM was in a hopeless state, with its then-leader Dr. Hubert Minnis and Butler-Turner embroiled in a struggle for the leadership post.
Yet despite the FNM’s well-publicized infighting, the party went on to win in a historic landslide fashion in the 2017 general election.
On the basis of this fact alone, PLPs shouldn’t count on the current anti-Minnis wave that played a significant role in the September election to carry over into the next election cycle.
Bahamians will not be judging the FNM in 2026.
The next general election will be a referendum on the performance of the PLP.
The wash, rinse and repeat trend in general elections, dating back to 2002, have seen incumbents voted out of office. No government has won re-election since 1997, which makes it easy to predict who will win the upcoming general election.
It’s a wash, rinse and repeat scenario that undoubtedly has the FNM winning the general election, barring some catastrophic fallout between the FNM and the Bahamian electorate, which is unlikely to happen.
In 2002, the PLP won; in 2007, it was the FNM; 2012, PLP; 2017, FNM; 2021, PLP.
Conventional wisdom says that the Bahamian people will return the FNM to power in 2026 or whenever Prime Minister Philip Brave Davis rings the bell.
— Kevin Evans